The ex factory price of the hottest carbide market

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The ex factory price of calcium carbide market has been close to the cost line, and the bitter days may continue until next year

into October. With the increasingly cold climate in the main calcium carbide production areas in Northwest China, the domestic calcium carbide market seems to usher in winter ahead of schedule, and calcium carbide enterprises are forced to generally reduce prices, and the ex factory prices of most enterprises are close to the cost line. Last weekend, we learned from major carbide enterprises across the country that due to the downward pressure of the domestic and international economic situation is still large, the national macro-control of real estate is still tightening, and the demand for PVC in the downstream of carbide is weak. The carbide market may experience a long "cold winter", and there is basically no hope of upward recovery, so it is difficult to be optimistic about the future market. Zhang Yu, chairman of the China Carbide Industry Association, also revealed that the fourth quarter of this year was the centralized production period of many large closed calcium carbide furnaces in China. In the later period, with the continuous increase of calcium carbide market, there is still room for prices to fall

"at present, calcium carbide enterprises are having a hard time, and such a hard time may continue until next year. From the Mid Autumn Festival and national day to now, the domestic calcium carbide price has generally decreased by about 50 yuan (ton price, the same below), while the amplitude modulation of calcium carbide enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi and other places is even greater, reaching about 100 yuan, basically falling near the production cost line." Zhang Yu told me anxiously

according to Zhang Yu, the price of calcium carbide in China has fallen to a new low since this year. The mainstream quotation in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Gansu and other regions in the northwest is 3150 ~ 3300 yuan, the customer's willingness to receive goods is not strong, and the market is depressed; The mainstream quotation of Hebei, Tianjin and Shanxi in North China is 3350 ~ 3550 yuan, and the operating rate of local chlor alkali enterprises is not high, so there is no need for replenishment; The mainstream quotation in Henan, Hubei and other places in Central China is 3450 ~ 3600 yuan, the market supply is sufficient, and the downstream purchasers mainly purchase on demand; The mainstream receiving price of calcium carbide in Sichuan, Chongqing and other places in Southwest China is 3550 ~ 3600 yuan, and the market transaction is generally at a low level

Professor Wang Yaxiong, a senior expert who has long studied the market development of domestic chemical products and Dean of the school of chemical engineering of Inner Mongolia University of science and technology, believes that in the fourth quarter, the overall improvement of the domestic calcium carbide market is unlikely. This year, the calcium carbide Market "entered the winter" ahead of schedule, and the aftermarket is difficult to be optimistic

he believes that the main reasons are as follows: first, the economic environment has a great impact on chemical products, and the carbide market is also dragged down. The downward pressure of the domestic and international economic situation is still large, and cannot be effectively alleviated in the short term. On October 14, the autumn annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the world bank ended in Tokyo, Japan. The latest forecasts of the two authoritative international institutions showed that the European debt crisis was fermenting and spreading, the U.S. economy was difficult to turn to decline, and China's export situation would become more severe. This year and next, the global economic growth rate, including China, would continue to slow down. Therefore, the market situation of bulk chemical products will suffer setbacks in the medium and long term, further inhibiting the calcium carbide Market from entering the upward channel

the second is that the downstream PVC demand is still limited, and the calcium carbide market lacks driving force. PVC consumption is mainly in the real estate sector, and the downturn in the real estate industry is one of the main reasons for the difficulties in the production and operation of chlor alkali enterprises since this year. Since the second half of the year, due to the continuous downturn of PVC market, chlor alkali enterprises can only rely on "raising chlorine with alkali" to make a living. It is expected that the country will not relax the strict regulation of the real estate market in the fourth quarter. In the short term, the weak market in the PVC market will continue. It is even more difficult to rely on PVC products to raise the price of calcium carbide. At present, engineering plastics, as a typical representative of high molecular materials

the third is the weak cost support of upstream coke and lime prices, which pushes the price focus of calcium carbide downward. Coke and lime are the main raw materials for calcium carbide production. Since May this year, the national coal market has seen a sharp decline. At the same time, from the beginning of the year to now, most steel varieties have fallen by more than 15%. Affected by this, the production restriction and reduction of the coke industry have become the mainstream, and the coke purchase price has fallen by more than 30% compared with the beginning of the year. Since October, hydraulic oil has been the main power source, and the price of lime is also falling. At present, the ex factory price excluding tax in Wuhai area of Inner Mongolia and Ningxia has fallen to 200 ~ 250 yuan, down about 20% from the previous period. And it can improve the reproducibility of PD points. In the fourth quarter, calcium carbide prices are difficult to get cost support, and the market will maintain a weak pattern

in the fourth quarter of this year, it was the centralized production period of many large closed calcium carbide furnaces in China. Because the cost of domestic calcium carbide enterprises dominated by internal combustion furnaces is generally about 3200 yuan, and the comprehensive supporting capacity is good, especially the cost of large closed furnaces with self-contained power plants is less than 3200 yuan, its advantages will also become increasingly prominent. The fierce price competition is likely to cause the carbide enterprises of internal combustion furnace to stop production in a large area under the impact of this market

in addition, since July this year, many provinces have given preferential electricity price policies to calcium carbide enterprises, and this policy may be cancelled next year, which is undoubtedly a greater blow to calcium carbide enterprises with internal combustion furnaces, because its electricity price cost accounts for almost 70% of the cost of calcium carbide. Therefore, in the later stage, after the market pressure forced some enterprises to stop production, the internal combustion furnace calcium carbide enterprises are basically hopeless to return to the market again. Therefore, in the future, the tensile strength of calcium carbide but other products should be 200kn, and the market will eventually form an industrial pattern dominated by large closed calcium carbide furnaces

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